Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 302041
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE MID-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE CLOUDY SKIES TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS FINALLY STARTED TO EXIT THE
REGION. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILD IN. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAK WAA SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S...JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD FREE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SHOOT UP INTO
THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE
LAKE. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...A 500 MB SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THERE IS A RIBBON OF ELEVATED RH
IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ENDED UP KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE PRECIP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE HAS PRECIP EVAPORATING JUST AS
IT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SLOWLY DEPART THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AS A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 500 MB SATURATING DURING
THE LATE FRIDAY/EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...BUT LOW LEVELS BELOW
THE 850 MB LEVEL LOOK TO STAY DRY...WITH DEW PT DEPRESSIONS OF
NEARLY 17 DEGREES AT 08Z SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SLIGHT
RIDGING OF THE 500 MB LEVEL HEIGHTS AS WELL...WHICH WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT QUIETER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

A WEAK 90+ KT 250 MB JET STREAK BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION. A
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS 250 MB JET STREAK. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM AND
GFS PROGGING 925 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C SUNDAY EVENING...WITH VERY WARM
SFC HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL HELP
SUPPORT INSTABILITY IN THE AREA AS NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
INSTABILITY OF NEAR 1300 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS SETUP...ALTHOUGH DRY LOW
LEVELS LOOK TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SFC
INITIALLY.

850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY EVENING AS A SFC WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTENING DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SOME DECENT SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY. SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE ECMWF LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR
OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
PRECIPITATION IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS KEYING
ON SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BETTER NW-SE MOISTURE AXIS ALONG ANOTHER WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE MODELS ARE
PROGGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING CLOUDS AND GUSTINESS IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TO THE REGION WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHEN A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE STATE AND
BRINGS SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THANKS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM. ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE GENERALLY DECREASING...GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ARE
STILL AROUND 20 KTS OFF OF KENOSHA COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN
THE CONSIDERABLE FETCH THAT THESE WINDS HAVE TO GENERATE
WAVES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 4 FT WAVES THROUGH 00Z.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ646.

&&

$$
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JTS


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