Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 250811
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS...
REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. AS IT DOES THE UPPER
JET IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH...WHILE THE MAIN JET MAX MOVES OFF TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AS 500 MB
PUSHES MAINLY EAST BEFORE THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA
TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MOST OF THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
ILLINOIS BORDER TODAY.

THE 700 MB RH IS SATURATED ALONG THE SOUTH TIER OF COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...THEN DRIES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. THE 850 MB RH DRIES THIS MORNING NORTH AREAS...THEN ACROSS
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB LOW WEAKENS AND ELONGATES AS IT
MOVES EAST...THEN SAGGING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.  THE EAST 850 MB
WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY TURN
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THIS
MORNING...BUT REMAIN MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION
TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN.  THE NAM...HRRR AND
THE ARW HIGH RES MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH THE ARW NMN DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND A BIT MORE NORTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF A
BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM.  WILL BE CUTTING BACK ON POP
VALUES...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF TODAY.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A PLEASANT
STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE A STEADY BREEZE OUT
OF THE NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD... BUT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WE CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. INLAND
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD WHILE LAKESHORE
TEMPS WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI TUE AFTERNOON/
EVENING. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THIS SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON THE HEELS OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW. THE GFS
IS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT/WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WI. THUS... KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECWMF IS SHOWING A MORE ZONAL UPPER JET ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A LARGER RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS IS QUICKEST TO DRAW
VERY WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED
WITH THE WARMING SINCE IT IS SHOWING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. IF
THE GFS PANS OUT... MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION
TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN.

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS BORDER...AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.  CIGS WILL
RISE AND CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.  RESULTING PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BRING WAVES
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ645.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC


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