Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 151503 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1003 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD STAVE OFF ANY PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING RAMPS UP...BUT THEY
SHOULD NOT FALL QUITE AS FAR AS THEY DID TUESDAY AS RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ONLY TO 850MB...NOT QUITE
AS DEEP OF MIXING AS WE SAW TUESDAY. GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE
COMPARED TO FURTHER INLAND...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FURTHER INLAND.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER FOR MSN AND UES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE TIGHTER FURTHER INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...ACCORDING
TO HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. GUSTS MAY REACH NEAR 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MSN AND UES...WHILE ENW AND MKE WILL SEE WEAKER
WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT AS STRONG NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY TODAY...BUT WE SHOULDN/T MIX OUT THE
DEWPOINTS AS READILY AS WE DID ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...SO WE/LL GET INTO A BIT MORE OF A RETURN
FLOW...BUT IT/S MOSTLY EASTERLY.  STILL...DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT
MORE ELEVATED THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT/S A
DECENT SHORT WAVE...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROP
IS...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.  THE ONE POSSIBLE CAVEAT IS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD SUNRISE. THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SNEAKING UP ACROSS EASTERN IL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A STRAY
SHOWER COULD CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WORTHY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS KENOSHA/RACINE COUNTIES

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW AND THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT MEANS
FOLKS NEAR THE LAKE WILL FEEL ESPECIALLY COOL TODAY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH THU NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN WI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON THU... SO
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAYBE REACHING 70 IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES
CLEARING OUT AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 30S WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ON THE LOW SIDE
ONCE AGAIN... ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS LOW AS TUE AND WED THIS WEEK.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
OR MAYBE THE EVENING. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF BUT
OTHER MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE... PLAN ON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND
60S NEAR THE SHORELINE AHEAD OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SO OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH AN INCREASING NORTHEAST BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH EJECTING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PHASING IT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
USHER COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY MID WEEK.

SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE STABLE OUT OF THE EAST AND A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...13-20KTS.

FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 20S...POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MIXED OUT AREAS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.  WE SHOULDN/T BE QUITE AS DRY
AS YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA DUE TO A
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THOSE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE PUSHING 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE WI DNR WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...WE/LL BE ADDING GREEN LAKE AND DANE COUNTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-056-
     057-062-063-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC


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