Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 141440 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DEW
POINTS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO MIX UP TO NEAR THE 800MB LEVEL ACCORDING
TO RAP MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE 14Z RACINE OBS SHOW AN 8KT
NORTHEAST WIND...INDICATING THE LAKE MI SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY
ACTIVATED. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE THAN FURTHER
INLAND DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE MORNING AND AFTN HOURS ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS. AN 8KT NORTHEAST WIND WAS REPORTED AT RACINE AT
14Z...SO THE LAKE BREEZE HAS ALREADY ACTIVATED. THESE ON-SHORE
WINDS COULD APPEAR IN ENW AND MKE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

DEEP RIDGING WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY. SO LIGHT WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL KICK IN BY LAKE MICHIGAN...SO MUCH COOLER NEAR THE LAKE VS
INLAND AREAS. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING UP TO 850MB SO DEWPOINTS
SHOULD TANK INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT NEAR
THE LAKE.

THE DRY DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...THOUGH AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF US BY EVENING...THE
RETURN FLOW WILL TEMPER SOME OF THAT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND BRING QUIET AND
MILD WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI. IT WILL BE WARM INLAND WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S... BUT A STEADY EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP
LAKESHORE TEMPS IN THE 50S.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THIS FEATURE
BUT OVERALL A DRY FORECAST.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

IT IS VERY TYPICAL FOR VARIOUS MODELS TO HANDLE CLOSED UPPER LOWS IN
DIFFERENT WAYS. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
EJECT INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED
INTO AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FCST SINCE MOST
MODELS KEEP US DRY. THE GFS IS THE WET MODEL FOR THE WEEKEND...
SINCE IT EJECTS THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE MIDWEST EARLIER
THAN THE ECWMF AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE ECWMF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
MODELS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC



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