Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 130155
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
855 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.UPDATE...
I SLOWED THE PRECIP ARRIVAL A BIT MORE PER THE LATEST ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THE TROUGH. IN FACT...SKIES ARE CLEARING FOR A TIME IN
THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE AND LIGHT RAIN THAT CLIPPED SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP IS HANGING VERY
CLOSE TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND PROBABLY WON/T ENTER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 2AM...REACHING MADISON ABOUT 3-4 AM AND
MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 5-6 AM. IT SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RATHER DRY...THERE IS A DECENT SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WORKING UP THE
FRONT AND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO WI IN TIME FOR THE FRONT.
THUS...THE HRRR IS SHOWING AN EXPANSION OF THE PRECIP AS THIS
OCCURS. STILL SOME THREAT FOR THUNDER...BUT NOTHING SERIOUS...AS
CAPE IS RATHER THIN.

CLEARING WILL ARRIVE RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
SUNRISE MONDAY WITH TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S
TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 09-14Z MONDAY. LOOK FOR RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO
HIT MADISON AROUND 3 AM...AND THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA BY 5-6 AM.
CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AND RAIN MOVE THROUGH. THEN
LOOK FOR RAPID CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF PASSING COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY...DIMINISHING BY EVENING. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE OUT TOWARD
OPEN WATER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

INITIAL MORE COMPACT VORT HEADING ENE THROUGH ERN IA/NRN IL. SHOWS
UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR/RUC COMBO WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF ENHANCEMENT
ON IR IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. HRRR BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO
THE SRN CWA THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE SOME POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WAS GOING TO GO WITH HIGHER HRRR/CONSSHORT POPS BUT PER COLLAB
WITH KLOT THE LINGERING DRY AIR AND 30 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
MAY HAVE A SAY IN HOW FAR NE THIS INITIAL AREA IS ABLE TO ADVANCE.
HAVE NOW GONE AHEAD AND BOOSTED POPS FURTHER IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS
PRECIP SPREADING IN AND KDBQ REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. HIGHER DEWS
LIKELY TO ADVECT NEWD WITH TIME. NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIP WITH
PRIMARY UPPER WAVE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS STILL LARGELY ON
TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN THE FAR
EAST. ELEVATED CAPE IS RATHER MARGINAL BUT STILL SOME SO OPTED TO
LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPS TO STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SYSTEM PULLS EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH MAIN STORY BEING THE DRY AND
GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE
60S SO NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTED TROUGH. ANY
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICK DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL MOVE TO SRN
WI AND NRN IL BY 12Z TUE AND REACH LOWER MI BY 00Z WED. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ENSUE DURING THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE EASTERN ONE
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED.

AN INCREASING ESELY FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER SE CO. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM TX TO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z THU. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MORE OF AN ELY FLOW WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS ON WED ESPECIALLY
OVER ERN WI VIA THE COLD LAKE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WED NT AND THU BUT WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENTLY
CLOSE TO SRN WI TO MAINTAIN CHANCES OF LGT RAIN. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES FRI NT WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED OVER SRN WI. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT
WITH SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...COUPLE DIFFERENT FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH THIS
PERIOD. ONE ARRIVES THIS EVENING. COMPACT WAVE LIFTING ENE FROM ERN
IA. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT RAIN COMES ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN A BREAK BEFORE PLAINS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY. THEN GUSTY WEST WIND REGIME
TAKES HOLD MONDAY WITH MORNING CLEARING.

MARINE...NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH A POTENTIAL LULL TONIGHT WITH TROUGH
PASSAGE TONIGHT...THEN WEST WINDS RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
WAVE ACTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS OPEN WATERS ON MONDAY WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING



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