Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 301550 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

DEEP 500 MB LOW PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BROUGHT
OVERCAST SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE LOW
SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE
SKIES TO SCATTER OUT RESULTING IN A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WE ENDED UP ADJUSTING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES IN OUR WEST WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE LEFT TO FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

A DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW HAS BROUGHT MVFR CIGS TO MKE...ENW...AND
UES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO SCATTER
OUT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH AROUND NOON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE BRINGING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
INTO SE WI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER WISCONSIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOWER MICHIGAN/INDIANA BORDER
AT 12Z DROPS SE THROUGH THE DAY.

AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE THE DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY BRINGING SOME BROKEN CUMULUS DOWN THE LAKE AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH INSTABILITY AS 850-925 MB COLD POOLS ROTATE
OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. HRRR ALONE AMONG THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATED MODELS IN SHOWING
SPOTTY LIGHT QPF OVER THE EAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. HAVE PUT
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE EAST THIS MORNING.

EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...WITH MIXING UP
TO 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITH WINDS EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE EAST COOL...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 ALONG THE LAKE AND NEAR 60 INLAND...WHILE A BIT MORE SUN
WILL ALLOW HIGHS IN THE MID 60S IN THE WEST.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY SETTLES OVER THE STATE WITH AMPLIFIED BUT
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MADE A
DOWNWARD TWEAK TO CONSENSUS LOWS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
ORGANIZED LIFT TO CONSIDER POPS MOST AREAS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY...SO EXPECT COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH SATURDAY TO PUSH THE
MILDER TEMPS ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NORTH
OF MILWAUKEE...WHERE THE WINDS MAY BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND BRING IN
SOME COOLER LAKE AIR ALONG SHORE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO KICK
OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS THEN BRING
THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MORE STORM
CHANCES.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL THEN LIKELY WARM BACK UP WEDNESDAY IF THE
FRONT DOES INDEED LIFT NORTHWARD INTO/THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING TO REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME INDICATION OF A SHORT PERIOD OF A BROKEN MVFR
CLOUD DECK THAT WOULD AFFECT THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES MID-LATE
MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS WELL BUT VERY ISOLATED
AND TOO FEW TO MENTION IN THE EASTERN TAFS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL WITH MIXING UP TO 20-30 KNOT WINDS BRINGING
SOME NEAR 20 KNOT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

MARINE...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN-MOST MARINE
ZONES AS NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RISING TO 22-25 KNOTS WITH
TIGHTER GRADIENT THAN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. WILL CARRY IT UNTIL 7 PM...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT NEED TO
GO THAT LONG AS WINDS EASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOATERS IN THE
REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE DRY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES SOMEWHAT ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY AND FRIDAY...IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...BEFORE RISING ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING...WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY EASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV


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