Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 271726
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHICH
WILL LIMIT HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE REGION CURRENTLY SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A
WEAK TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST. THE TROUGH IS FINALLY
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES ARENT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...SO VERY LITTLE QPF IS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST
POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT. SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...HOWEVER
CONDITIONS DRY OUT QUICKLY THEREAFTER. UPPER LEVEL RIDING RETURNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA MAY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TONIGHT DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS LOOK TO
MODERATE IN THE UPPER 30S OR 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED IS PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED THU NIGHT/FRI WITH THE GFS NOW
THE WETTER MODEL WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC FRONT
PRECIP FARTHER NORTH.

CONFIDENCE DOES NOT IMPROVE IN THE SHORTWAVE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN OR BETWEEN MODELS. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE INSTABILITY
IS LIKELY GOING TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/TSTORMS BUT
WHERE AND EXACTLY WHEN IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PASS
BY KMBG AND KABR TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY





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