Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 150531 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS FROPA TIMING.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S INTO THE MID
80S AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE DRYNESS IN THE AIR IS NOTED BY
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WHICH IS
RESULTING IN DANGEROUSLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 20
PERCENT CWA-WIDE. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPERIENCING SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.

OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND POTENTIAL
NIGHT-TIME MIXING /NON-DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER?/ FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS...AT THE VERY LEAST...A WIND
ADVISORY WILL STILL BE NEEDED. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY EXPIRATION IS
18Z WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL OF SEEING 40 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A COUPLE HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SODAK WHILE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL STRENGTHENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE LIMITED
FORCING/LIFT TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SINCE THE REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BENEATH UPPER
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY
/THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/...OPTED TO HANG ON TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ANCHORED MAINLY ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
PERIODS AND MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SODAK ZONES.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL.

SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION FOR MORE INFO ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNFOLDS MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERN WAVE OF ENERGY
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE GFS SHOWS THESE TWO SYSTEM MERGING AND
QUICKLY PUSHING EAST...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WOUND UP SHORT WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
HOWEVER...SHOWS THE SOUTHWEST LOW BECOMING CUT OFF AND LINGERING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES UNTIL THE SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY
DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND PUSHES THE WHOLE SYSTEM EASTWARD. THE
DIFFERENCE IN THESE TWO PATTERNS WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
RAIN OR NO RAIN FOR OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. HAVE 20 AND 30 POPS IN
THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT UNTIL MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A SOLUTION
THERE IS NO REAL CONFIDENCE. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF BY SUNSET. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A PUSH TOWARD CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. AND...PRIOR TO THE ADVECTION OF
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...MARGINALLY INCLEMENT
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD SET UP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
FOR A FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
COORDINATED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA /INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 039 AND 046/ FOR WEDNESDAY FROM 11 AM CDT TO 8
PM CDT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN
FIRE WEATHER...DORN





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