Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 010540 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1240 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER A LITTLE
EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH.
RH REMAINS LOW AT 15 TO 20 PERCENT BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE A
LITTLE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BELOW 10 MPH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF RIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS
WILL THEN LIKELY STABILIZE AND EVEN RISE ONCE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 8Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WX CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WILL
LET TODAYS WARNING RIDE DESPITE VERY MARGINAL WINDS UP TO THIS
POINT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE DANGEROUS DAY CONCERNING
FIRE CONDITIONS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LINK UP WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING MAX
HEATING. THUS WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY WEST RIVER. EAST SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER CRITERIA. HOWEVER THE WIND IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY LOW RH...DRY FUELS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
ALONG WITH MY NEIGHBORS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THEY ARE BASICALLY NON EXISTENT. MID
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT SUPPORT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BUT THATS
ABOUT IT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER ON
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROF AND A WEAK
RIDGE TO THE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID LEVEL LIFT THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH A 20C SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...AND CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 8 AND 10KFT. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIXED DOWN WINDS
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD EJECT OUT OVER THE
REGION AND BRING US A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD AS WARMER AIR IS SUPPRESSED
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT /7
     PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR






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