Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 010903
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MOST OF THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM ONCE AGAIN CENTERS AROUND FIRE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN ND. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY THERE. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY FIRE ZONE AND POINTS WEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TANK AS A DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. STILL FORECASTING RH VALUES TO FALL AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. INCREASED HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A NICE SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY BUT RH VALUES
APPEAR MARGINAL. DEBATED ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT DRIEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD AND INTO
SOUTHERN MN. CURRENT RH GRIDS DO HAVE VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THOSE EASTERN FIRE ZONES GO ALL
THE WAY TO THE ND BORDER WHERE HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST. PLUS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT HIGHER ALSO. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FLIRTING WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE FLOW
ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN US EARLY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WILL BE SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE GFS AND EC DO VARY AT
THE SURFACE WITH WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EC CONTINUED TO HAVE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE GFS WAS
MUCH WARMER. IN FACT...THE EC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS/MEX AT ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A COOLING
TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COOLING TO MOSTLY THE 40S BY
TUESDAY. ALSO...HAVE IN CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
     MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>271.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ003-015-
     033-045.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






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