Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 041750
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

PERSISTENT DRY INFLOW IN THE LOWER-MID LEVELS EXPECTED TO KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED SMALL
POPS FROM OUR WESTERN AREAS...AND ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN EVEN LOWER RH VALUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS
EAST RIVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THOUGH...SO FIRE
DANGER SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MODERATE-HIGH RANGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA.

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN GETTING CLOSE TO 20
PERCENT. WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THOUGH SO NO HEADLINES FOR
FIRE WEATHER. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. MODELS NOT DOING
THE BEST PICKING UP ON THIS...BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
EASTERLY MOVEMENT INTO THE WESTERN CWA TODAY DUE TO THE VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE. DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER THE VERY WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CWA AS SOME HI RES MODELS TRY TO PUSH ACTIVITY CLOSE
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS PATTERN CHANGE
ENSUES...WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ENERGY EJECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TRIED TO
DELAY ONSET OF PRECIP A BIT...AND STILL MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK.
APPEARS BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEES A NICE INCREASE AS WELL AND
MODELS STILL SUGGESTING DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST US WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING BACK GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING SOME MORE MUCH NEEDED RAIN
TO THE REGION. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 12KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SETTLE TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BY EVENING...INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...JH



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