Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 172038
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS STILL AGREE WELL BUT WERE SLOWING DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION BEING PUSHED IN FROM THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SATURATE INTO SATURDAY AS WAA/UPPER DIVERGENT
LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE
DELAYED THE MOVEMENT OF RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE CWA AND EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE RAINFALL WITH AT LEAST A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH. SOME PLACES IN THE EAST MAY RECEIVE UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR MORE. ALSO...WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE HAVE INCLUDED SOME THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THEY MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL ALSO INTENSIFY TO THE
EAST. THE MODELS DIFFER SOME AT THIS TIME WITH THE PHASING OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA. WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BEHIND ALONG WITH CAA...EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH
SHOWERS WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EC HAD QPF ON THE BACKSIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO QPF
SHOWN WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THUS...KEPT THE RAIN POPS IN FOR NOW
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AND EVEN THEN MINOR DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THANKS TO CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION COULD
RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS FOR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY. DEEP
MIXING AND A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MINNESOTA/EASTERN SD WILL
ALSO RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE
WITH NO CHANCE FOR MOISTURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE
NORTH TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF IN THE KPIR AREA UNTIL TOMORROW.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY






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