Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 252317 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
617 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WAS
ALREADY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH
SURFACE PRESSURES RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE SLOWLY
FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE CWA ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY TO WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN. THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOW LESS AS IT
MOVES IN. HAVE IN SOME POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THIS ALL DEPENDS
ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE BOTH NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THESE WARM TEMPS ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE
MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND AFTER 0Z
SATURDAY...OR WHEN THE EML COOLS OFF.

THERE IS A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ECMWF SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. EITHER WAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

KABR/KATY SHOULD FAVOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE. KPIR/KMBG WILL
PROBABLY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK






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