Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 210548 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1248 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO  IMPROVE AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE CHIEF CONCERN. AXIS OF VERY DRY AIR
SITS OVER KMBG/KPIR BUT NOT QUITE TO KABR...WITH WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THE SHORT TERM OFFERS MORE OF THE SAME OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A FETCH THAT ROUNDS THE LOW TO THE EAST.
NOTABLE CHANGES FOR TOMORROW...MIXED DEPTH WILL GENERATE SIMILAR
HIGHS...40S TO MID 50S...HOWEVER MIXED DEWPOINTS YIELD CLOSER TO
TEENS AND 20S COMPARED TO NEAR ZERO TODAY. MIXED DOWN WINDS WILL
ALSO BE LESS INTENSE...CLOSER TO 20G30KTS IN THE EAST WITH LOWER
VALUES WEST RIVER AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO WEAKER WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN...WITH
JUST LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EWD BY FRIDAY. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM
ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE WEST. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST RIVER AS A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION.
AREAS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH...WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY BETTER COMBINATION
OF FORCING AND SATURATION. HOWEVER...EVEN HERE ANY QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AT MOST A QUARTER INCH.

NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. WE ARE STILL A
WEEK OR TWO AWAY FROM MEDIAN LAST 28F READINGS...THUS NO FREEZE
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30
KNOT RANGE BY MID MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...DORN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.