Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 162303
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
603 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS
CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LEAD THE SYSTEM INTO REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING HOLDING TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...SOME HINTS OF A WARM
FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...WITH A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY LINKS
THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER IN THE PCPN
CHANCES.

ON SAT...A 925-850 MB WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. A LOT OF DRY AIR FOR THIS LIFT TO BATTLE...PER
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN/IA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF
850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT. SATURATION IS THERE...AND SO SHOULD BE AREAS OF
SHOWERS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SO
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY - MOSTLY SOUTH.

THE PCPN/CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW WAVES. FIRST WOULD BE THE WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE/WARM FRONT BAND ON SATURDAY...WITH ITS SATURATION
ISSUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SECOND WILL COME SAT
NIGHT/SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIRD COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD MISS THE FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS TRENDING ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. MAIN AREAS OF RAIN COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. SOMETHING
TO WATCH. WILL KEEP CHANCES HIGH WITH AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU APR
16 2015

PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE PCPN THIS
WEEKEND CLOSES OFF ITS PARENT LOW...WHICH THEN WOBBLES/REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL FUNNEL COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. BITS OF ENERGY WILL ORBIT THE LOW...BRINGING LIGHT PCPN
CHANCES TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD OF VFR WEATHER EXPECTED. AXIS OF MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF BROKEN AND THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH
CEILINGS IN THE 5K-10K FOOT RANGE. WITH A VERY BAGGY PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MIN RH/S SLATED TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENTS SAT AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND ALREADY DRY FUELS...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME ELEVATED. RAIN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AIR ALSO MOVING IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...HELPING TO ABATE THE ELEVATED CONCERNS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04



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