Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 171105
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
605 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
DOMINATED BY A DRY LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS. CLOUDS TODAY GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE SCT 6K-8K FT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WINDS
TODAY/TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP



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