Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 060537 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. LOCAL EAST/NORTHEAST MARINE LAYER FLOW IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LK SUPERIOR SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING MAKING FOR A CHILLY TIME IN DOWNTOWN DULUTH/SUPERIOR..
BUT THIS SHOULD RELAX BY 8-9 PM AT THE LATEST. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY..BUT IT APPEARS AS THOUGHT THE MAIN
EFFECT FROM THE INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW WILL BE THE
INCREASED/THICKENING CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A CLOUDY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY IN MOST
LOCATIONS..ESPECIALLY SOUTH/WEST AREAS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER..CLOUDS
WILL BE LATEST TO INVADE THE MN ARROWHEAD..WHERE HUMIDITIES ONCE
AGAIN COULD DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO LATE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES MAY TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO REALLY GET A
GOOD NORTHWARD PUSH..BUT BY WED AFTERNOON WE FINALLY SHOULD SEE A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION..THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER GOOD
SWWD PUSH ON THE MARINE LAYER INTO THE DULUTH/SUPERIOR AREAS..WITH
LOCALLY COLDER CONDITIONS WITH THE LAKE BREEZE BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE A COUPLE DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH UP AND DOWN THE
PLAINS AND INTO SOUTH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THERE WILL BE
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL GET ABSORBED BY THE CANADIAN SURFACE
LOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE WEST APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND. THE JET WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.25 INCHES. SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD BE INITIATED BY THE STRONG JET WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN APPEAR TO BE OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA.

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TO 1.25 TO
1.50 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO ENTER THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST PERIOD OF THE
WEEK. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL GIVE A PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION...AND CONSIDERING THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET A GOOD SENSE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SOLAR HEATING THE FORECAST AREA CAN GET TO
INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. THE CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT THAT
SOLAR HEATING.

COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE COULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA COULD PREVENT THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FROM
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY IN RAINFALL COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO TO BE SLOWLY LOST AS AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH 10Z THIS MORNING. A
WARM FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...ALSO
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING THE 11Z-18Z
TIME RANGE.  SOME IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR KBRD AND KHYR.  AFTER
18Z A RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AS THE BAND OF STRATUS AND
RAIN SHOWERS WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH.  ANOTHER WAVE OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND SHOWERS TO PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  70  48  58 /  50  70  70  30
INL  57  70  42  56 /  50  70  70  20
BRD  60  72  45  57 /  60  70  60  20
HYR  61  76  54  61 /  30  70  70  30
ASX  54  78  53  61 /  30  70  60  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
AVIATION...BJT





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