Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 310921
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
421 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS KDLH AND KHYR AS OF 00Z BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THE OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KINL
GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...ALSO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. IT MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY AFFECT KHIB AND KDLH...WHILE
THE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN VFR. AFTER 15Z NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK
UP AND BLOW AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  50  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  57  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  52  29  64  43 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ019-025-
     026-033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE






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