Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 252011
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE GAVE
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS FROM CANADA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR COOL IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY...BUT AREAS WELL
INLAND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY AND MILD TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS
TROUGH WITH GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVING
EAST INTO SW ONTARIO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY...AND THIS DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS AND HOW FAR EAST THE LIGHT RAIN IS ABLE TO SPREAD. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. NEXT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH BOTH THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF
DEPICTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE
IS TOO MUCH SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE TO GIVE MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEK WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
TO THE LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND TO
THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH A SOUTH WIND IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT IN NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT /ABOUT 5 MPH OR LESS/ WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY EAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AFFECTING KDLH...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  51  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
INL  27  59  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  31  60  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  26  56  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  26  48  31  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM






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