Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 160605
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
105 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS NE MN.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA SWD
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS
PRODUCING A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
MOST OF MINNESOTA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
REGION WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON.

AN EMBEDDED S/W IS CURRENTLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE SFC
HIGH WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER...FOR THE TIME THE
DRY AIR MASS IS WINNING OUT AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TO
THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO MN. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A STRONGER PUSH OF CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER N-CENTRAL MN JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST INTO THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS
DRAGGED SLOWLY TO THE EAST. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THIS RAIN EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT LATE THUR
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

SFC RIDGING COVERS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS WAY OVERDONE WITH ITS HANDLING OF A SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY AND WAS IGNORED. SATURDAY NIGHT FINDS RAIN ARRIVING OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MANITOBA
LAKES. AS THIS UPPER LOW DEEPENS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD...IT
MERGES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THIS PULLS MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR THIS PHASING SYSTEM TO FEED OFF OF. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BEGINS TO PULL
DOWN COLDER AIR FROM THE ARCTIC...MUCH LIKE A WINTER SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IT IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO
HAVE A TRUE SNOW EVENT. THIS SYSTEM THEN BECOMES LOCKED IN PLACE
JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL SEE RAIN DURING
THE DAY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW SHORT
HOURS OF ALL SNOW POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. INCREASING AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA.
LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF -RA AT KBRD. OTHER
MN TERMINALS MAY SEE VCSH BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z THIS MORNING...BUT
NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH IF ANY WILL REACH THE GROUND AS
LATEST GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  65  37  57 /  10   0   0  10
INL  33  64  33  61 /   0  10   0  10
BRD  36  67  35  63 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  37  67  38  63 /  10   0   0  10
ASX  37  67  37  58 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/WL





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