Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 150000
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
700 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 522 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

UPDATED FOR HEADLINE INFORMATION AT THE BOTTOM...TO ADD FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND WRN MN WILL USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL ALSO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MUCH STRONGER WINDS TO THE WEST OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH
ON WED.

EXPECT TO SEE HIGH LEVEL THIN CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WED
MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD THICKNESS IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE WHERE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS NOTICEABLY
COOLER...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING SUPPORTING NO PCPN. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN QPF WHILE ECMWF DRIER AND GEM HAS NO QPF.
USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH GAVE SMALL POPS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
MAY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY WHICH
IS KEEPING DRIER AIR FROM BEING OVERCOME BY MOISTURE. MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF POPS ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL
TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT PCPN
FREE AS DRIER AIR LOCKED IN WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME. MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE GFS WET...ECMWF DRY
AND NAM/GEM IN BETWEEN. MAINTAINED THE BLENDED APPROACH WHICH
RESULTED IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST. DIALED DOWN THE QPF WITH SUCH LARGE DISCREPANCIES. THESE
DIFFERENCES PERSIST AND CONTINUED WITH THE BLENDED APPROACH WITH
POPS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IRON COUNTY WI AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES
AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND USED A CONSENSUS FOR POPS/QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT KINL TONIGHT DUE
TO A LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN MONTANA.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOMORROW...WHILE
THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS SETUP WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH DAY TIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SFC WINDS
TO DEVELOP AROUND 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  65  43  62 /   0   0  10  10
INL  45  69  47  62 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  43  68  46  66 /   0  10  20  10
HYR  41  66  42  66 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  40  67  42  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WIZ001-002-006-007.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP/WL






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