Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 190601
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
101 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

A WARM AND DRY WEEK COMES TO AN END WITH RAIN AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS LEADING TO EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND THUS COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE. TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST...ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH. STRONG FGEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY DRY SLOT MAY BUILD IN
TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
EXISTING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

REST OF TODAY...SUNNY...DRY...AND MILD. WINDS INLAND HAVE BEEN A BIT
STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST DUE TO DEEPER THAN EXPECTED MIXING
OCCURRING...BUT OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS WELL ON TRACK. TEMPS
BY LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER AS EXPECTED...IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...AND WARMER IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND. DRY OUT THERE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 15 TO 25
PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY...RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. AS LOWS DIP TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION. RAIN WILL BE MOST INTENSE TOWARDS EARLY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...CLOUDY...OFF AND ON RAIN...AND GENERALLY COOLER. AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WILL SEE OFF AND ON RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT GENERALLY A DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS FEELING MUCH COOLER BUT REALLY ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER AND
NEAR THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALL CAUSE RAIN TO CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING OVER FAR
EASTERN AREAS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH A DRY
SLOT BRINGING AN END OR MINIMUM TO THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW AND SOME SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

WE RAMPED UP POPS MONDAY AND KEPT THEM LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY SNOW OVER NORTHERN
AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 10Z...WITH CEILINGS
SLOWLY LOWERING TO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MVFR-IFR UNTIL AFTER LOW PASSAGE AND WINDS TURN TO
NORTHWEST...ALLOWING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO GRADUALLY RETURN
TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  42  30  42 /  40  60  50  40
INL  32  40  27  41 /  50  70  60  40
BRD  36  42  30  47 /  20  60  40  30
HYR  37  44  31  44 /  60  50  50  40
ASX  38  45  32  44 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE







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