Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 030240
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CWA DURING THE EVENING.
SOME GUSTY WINDS REMAINED ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEED VALUES HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.
COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AND LEECH LAKE AREAS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
OVERALL...THINK THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN FURTHER AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...PER HRRR AND RAP SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE 4KM
NMM WRF. WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MENTION FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 19Z WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWWD INTO WESTERN ND. A SFC TROF WAS ALSO FOUND IN CENTRAL ND.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING AHEAD OF THIS TROF IN THE VCNTY OF
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AN AREA OF SFC
FGEN WAS ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH THE STORMS. EXPECT THIS LINE OF STORMS
TO REACH NW MN BY 21Z. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND
REACH THE NW CORNER OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 01Z. HOWEVER...IT IS AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WHEN THE STORMS BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR THAT
HAS BEEN CAMPED OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW THIS TREND AS WELL. AS THIS
INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS DISSOLVES...THE NEXT ROUND WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AROUND 06Z AS THE SFC
FRONT MAKES PROGRESS EWD INTO THE REGION. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SEEN
ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE
ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING AS A THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS IS OVER THE REGION AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK. BY AFTERNOON...THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO NW WI WITH MAX HEATING...STORMS WILL BECOME A BIT
MORE VIGOROUS...AND BORDER ON SEVERE. SBCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 3000
J/KG AND LI/S TO -8C PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS
NEAR SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS ARE 1 TO
1.25 INCHES. MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AND HAVE
ROBUST QPF BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SUNDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND WHILE I HAVE MAINTAINED SOME POPS FOR THE EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT THEY WILL ONLY BE ONGOING AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND EXIT QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING.  A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS MONDAY
BACK IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS TROUGHINESS TO OUR WEST IS GOING TO
SENT A STRONG...SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.  THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A TROUGH OUT WEST REMAINS
WITH WARM AIR STILL BEING FUNNELED IN OUR DIRECTION AND SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND IN PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SO TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT KINL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER THERE STILL COULD BE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
AROUND...SO KEPT VCSH AT KINL...KBRD AND KHIB AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN. SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND DUE
TO THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

AS THE FRONT MOVES IN WINDS AT 1.5-2 KFT INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. SO KEPT LLWS AT KDLH AND KHIB...BUT STILL MAY
NEED FOR KHYR.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND
18Z...BUT UNCERTAIN ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SO
KEPT KDLH AT VCTS. PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT KHYR WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20Z-00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  77  44  67 /  30  40   0   0
INL  48  73  38  66 /  20  10   0   0
BRD  54  76  44  70 /  40  30   0   0
HYR  53  77  44  70 /  10  60  20   0
ASX  50  80  44  67 /  10  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP/WL





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