Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 231927
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
227 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE AND LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME PCPN. MAY
INITIALLY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW... BUT ANY MIXTURE WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN ON FRIDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HEIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE INCREASING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND
BRINGS MORE MILD PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE REGION. WE/LL SEE SOME PCPN
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES BY WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME RIDGING AND A BIT OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... SO THINGS
WILL STILL BE A BIT COOL. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND DRIER
WITH THE NEXT PCPN CHANCE... WHICH LOOKS TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. JUST INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SEE MORE PRONOUNCED WARM ADVECTION AND RISING HEIGHTS... ALTHOUGH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN... SO PCPN CHANCES ARE
LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MARGINAL MVFR MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE FINAL 3-6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING... THEN LOWER OVERNIGHT AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. IF PCPN DEVELOPS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED
A FEW SITES COULD SEE A BRIEF -RASN MIX AT THE START... BUT AT
THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED -RA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  43  32  43 /  10  50  40  20
INL  20  49  32  51 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  32  47  35  52 /  50  70  40  20
HYR  23  50  32  51 /  10  50  40  20
ASX  22  47  32  44 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...


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