Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240617
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
117 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 10 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE AND LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME PCPN. MAY
INITIALLY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW... BUT ANY MIXTURE WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN ON FRIDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HEIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE INCREASING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND
BRINGS MORE MILD PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE REGION. WE/LL SEE SOME PCPN
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES BY WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME RIDGING AND A BIT OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... SO THINGS
WILL STILL BE A BIT COOL. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND DRIER
WITH THE NEXT PCPN CHANCE... WHICH LOOKS TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. JUST INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SEE MORE PRONOUNCED WARM ADVECTION AND RISING HEIGHTS... ALTHOUGH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN... SO PCPN CHANCES ARE
LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
EXITS THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
CIGS/VIS WILL GENERALLY PLUMMET TO MVFR AFTER 16Z... AS RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT
EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CAUSE CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER
INTO IFR AT KDLH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH YET... SO PROVIDED A PROB
GROUP FOR THE SITE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  32  43  30 /  50  40  20  10
INL  49  32  51  30 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  47  35  52  31 /  70  40  20  10
HYR  50  32  51  29 /  50  40  20  10
ASX  47  32  44  29 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS MPX
LONG TERM...NWS MPX
AVIATION...MCLOVIN





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