Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 280836
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
336 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN CENTERED AROUND THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TODAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING OVER NE MN...AND INTO NW WI IN THE AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT ARE
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NRN MN THIS MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE MORNING IN NE MN. AS THE WAVE MOVES EWD
INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW WI...THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL
START TO WASH OUT THE FRONT AND ALLOW THE RAIN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. SHOULD ONLY SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE AN EXTENSIVE
AMOUNT OF VIRGA WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.

BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY
INTO THE 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
WELL WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.

CLEAR SKIES UNDER A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S AGAIN. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING N TO S ACROSS ONTARIO AND A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND INTO
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI WED AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING ARE BUILDING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS TRYING TO GENERATE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
OVER NW WI AS AN UPPER LOW DIVES SSEWD. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS ARE
DRY. A CHECK OF THE 1000-850MB LAYER REVEALS THAT THE RH FIELD IS
LESS THAN 65 PERCENT. IF ANYTHING...THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES...BUT MORE LIKE VIRGA AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
RAIN. RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT FINDS
THE UPPER RIDGE BEING FLATTENED SOMEWHAT AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROF MOVES INTO MN LATE. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING. ALL MODELS OFFER DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS FOR QPF. HAVE USED A BLEND FOR POPS/QPF. THE SHORT WAVE
AND ITS COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN FRIDAY AND INTO NW WI
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE TRYING TO WASH OUT THE FRONT BY
00Z SATURDAY. MAINTAINED A BLENDED APPROACH TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
DIFFERENCES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF...A QUASI ZONAL FLOW RETURNS.
THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN AN UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH DIFFICULT TO TIME
PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. A CONSENSUS APPROACH WAS
USED FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS TAKE ON A
CHAOTIC LOOK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE ENERGY TRYING TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA. A BLENDED APPROACH WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR
DISCREPANCIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WITH SFC COLD FRONT WILL BRING MID LEVEL
CEILINGS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW AT 10 TO 15 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  37  64  35 /  30   0  10   0
INL  62  32  65  35 /  50   0   0   0
BRD  67  34  70  38 /  40   0   0   0
HYR  66  38  65  33 /  20  10  10   0
ASX  64  36  62  33 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GRANING






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