Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 010559 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...DRAGGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT.  THE
FRONTOGENESIS IS FAIRLY DECENT NOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THERE IS
A NICE FIELD OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS...BUT WEAKENS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST.  TOGETHER WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO
BE OVERCOME AT THE LOW LEVELS...THIS IS GOING TO LIMIT OUR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE WESTERN CWA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
GETTING FROM ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...BUT SOME LOCATIONS
FARTHER EAST MAY ONLY GET A TRACE.  TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH THE STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING ON WE SHOULD STILL GET BACK INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH SOME PLACES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE MAY DIP TO
AROUND FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A MILD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS BRINGING IN MUCH WARMER AIR...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF INCH OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS FROM
THE SAINT CROIX RIVER VALLEY EAST TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS
PLUNGING FROM 12-14C SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO 3-5C BY MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND
DEEP MIXING TAKING PLACE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND
APPROACHING 70 ON TUESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY AND BE EJECTED NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A
STREAM OF MOIST GULF AIR AHEAD OF IT RAISING PWAT VALUES TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBRD BETWEEN
12Z-15Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AS -RA DEVELOPS
DUE TO A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH. KINL MAY SEE MVFR CIGS FROM
TIME TO TIME BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z...BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SHOW PRECIPITATION DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS WHILE MOVING THROUGH. AS A RESULT
ONLY KEPT VCSH FOR KDLH AND KHIB DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND WEAKENING
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  73  50  72 /   0   0  20  50
INL  40  78  49  70 /   0  10  20  20
BRD  45  78  54  74 /   0   0  30  50
HYR  44  76  53  77 /  10   0  10  40
ASX  42  75  51  76 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING/WL






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