Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 221039
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
539 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPDATED TO CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA JUST BARELY GETTING TO 25
PERCENT. WINDS REMAIN CRITICAL...SUSTAINING AROUND 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 25-30MPH RANGE. IN ADDITION...RECENT RAINFALL HAS
IMPROVED THE CONDITION OF THE FUELS IN THE AREA. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA FOR A
COUPLE DAYS NOW IS MAINTAINING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
REGION...WITH FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS.  WE EVEN HAVE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING ON FOR THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE 10-13 BELOW RANGE AND FLOW COMING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LAKE.
CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT JUST ENOUGH THAT WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF SEVERAL INCHES IN THE LAST 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY
WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR IRON COUNTY WHERE THE SNOW IS
PILING UP THE MOST...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS ADVISORY INTO TODAY FOR
NOW...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED DEPENDING ON
MORNING SNOWFALL REPORTS. TODAY THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR AWHILE AS TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING.
WITH THE ENTIRE PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST HOWEVER...THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BREAK OUT OF THE OTHERWISE UNRELENTING
CLOUDS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DEEPER MIXING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN THE BRAINERD AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN FACT...AM IN THE PROCESS OF RE-EVALUATING THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND NEED TO DECIDE TO
DROP OR GO WITH A WARNING HERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS UPPER
LOW MAKES BETTER PROGRESS AT PULLING EAST TONIGHT...AND THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS KEEPING OUR CLOUD COVER HIGH GETS PULLED OFF
TO THE EAST AND ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTING EAST SHOULD
SHUT DOWN THE SHOWERS.  HIGHS TODAY TO REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY RISING
IN TO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...AND LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE 20S.  WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE SNEAKING IN AND TEMPS
WARMING ALOFT WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE ARE STILL SOME
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES. OVERALL...THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
REACHING TOO FAR EAST IN THE CWA...WITH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
LARGELY REMAINING DRY. WILL ALSO ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE MAIN SHOW IS EXPECTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA...IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS A RESULT...WE WILL KEEP
QPF FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME MAJOR UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY. THE GFS SPINS UP A MAJOR AND INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ILLINOIS AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD SPREAD A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND AT THIS POINT WE
DO FAVOR THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB FROM THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...INTO THE 60S TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

EXPECT MFVR/VFR... WITH CIGS LOWERING GRADUALLY TO PREVAILING MVFR
BY 9Z AS OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SOME
SITES HAVE REPORTED OCCASIONAL VIS DECREASING TO 2SM WITH PASSING
SHOWERS... THEREFORE DECIDED TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE IFR IN A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT AN OVERALL AND RAPID IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR BY WED AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED... NW WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN SPEED WED
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS... ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  25  45  23 /  20   0   0   0
INL  38  20  42  17 /  20   0   0   0
BRD  44  24  49  24 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  41  25  47  20 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  40  26  44  23 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







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