Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 300829
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
329 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND WITH DRY
WEATHER TODAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
NORTHLAND WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS REMAINING. THERE ARE SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING WEST TOWARD
THE ARROWHEAD AND THESE MAY MAKE INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD
AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. THE RAP
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN
OFF LAKE WIND KEEPING AREAS NEAR THE LAKE MUCH COLDER TODAY.

THE RIDGE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT/TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TO MOVE IN. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.80 INCHES TONIGHT. THE FORCING IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER
WESTERN AREAS...AND PROGRESS EAST INTO FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE DRIER AIR AND AS THE
FORCING WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
FAR WEST AND LOWEST EAST...AND END POPS FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT RANGING FROM AS MUCH AS
TWO TENTHS WEST TO A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS EAST.

EXPECT HIGHS FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FORECAST REMAINS WARM AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A REGION OF WAA AND H85 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS WILL SLIDE EAST OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS FRI NIGHT...PASSING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 F. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR  WHERE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING
HEIGHTS OF 5-6 KFT SAT AFTERNOON...WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT...LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS. THE
DEEPEST MIXING AND HIGHEST GUSTS OF 20 KT WILL BE ACROSS THE IRON
RANGE AND INLAND PORTION OF THE  MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HAVE LOWERED
DEW POINTS/RH VALUES SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIR
ALOFT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 20% ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MN
SAT...WITH VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30% RANGE FOR LOCATIONS IN NRN
WIS.

A COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ATTM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDER AND EVEN A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT PWAT VALUES INCREASE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...PROFILES DRY QUICKLY WITH THE FROPA...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN IF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL ALINE.

THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SINK OVER THE NORTHLAND
SUNDAY...BRINGING RAPIDLY FALLING H85 TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...IN THE 50S
TO 60S...THE DRY AIR MASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN LOW
RH VALUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO A SHORT WAVE WHICH ROUNDS THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES...LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED LONG-DURATION RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  37  69  41 /   0  10  50   0
INL  69  44  69  43 /   0  70  70   0
BRD  69  45  71  44 /   0  70  70   0
HYR  63  33  65  42 /   0   0  30   0
ASX  54  31  69  40 /   0   0  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







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