Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 190842
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
342 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. REFINED THE PCPN
CHANCES BY USING A BLEND OF THE RAP13 AND HRRR MODEL RUNS THROUGH
THIS MORNING SINCE THE TWO MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL
CAPTURING THE LOCATION OF THE CURRENT RAIN. DID NOT MAKE ANY
DRAMATIC CHANGES TO RAINFALL. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
CAN EXPECT ABOUT 0.30 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.

AT 330 AM...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SW MINNESOTA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA DIGGING AND DEEPENING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ONTARIO. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS LIFTING TO NNE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RAIN
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE
LOW NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER. THERE WAS ADDITIONAL RAIN IN EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NW MINNESOTA MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TO THE WEST. THE
NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S. THE NORTHLAND HAD LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER WILL LIFT NE
TO THE AITKIN AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA WILL DIG TO THE SE. THE RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE LIFTING TO THE NORTH WITH THE BAND OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. PARTS OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST COULD PICK
UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE TWO LOWS WILL GRADUALLY MERGE
INTO ONE LOW OVER NW ONTARIO. CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH TO THE 50S
OVER THE SOUTH. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...AND THERE COULD BE PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE SW FORECAST
AREA. ALSO...A PROMINENT BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SET UP OVER NW WISCONSIN THIS EVENING WHICH DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
A BAND OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL DEEPEN AND DEVELOP
INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN
MANITOBA.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINISH
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER NW ONTARIO. THE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND IN NW WISCONSIN SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY
AROUND DAWN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVING INTO THE NW FORECAST AREA.
LITTLE OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED SINCE MUCH OF IT
SHOULD MELT...EITHER ON IMPACT OR LATER IN THE MORNING.

MONDAY...IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER DAY WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON...AND THERE COULD BE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT -5 TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS. HEAVY CLOUD
COVER AND THE COOL NW FLOW WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM GETTING MUCH
HIGHER THAN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF COLD RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO
JUST NORTH OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE CLOSED H5 LOW WILL
REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW...GENERALLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEFINITELY COULD BE SOME
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE EPISODES OF UP TO A COUPLE INCHES...
FOLLOWED BY SOME PARTIAL TO FULL MELTING DURING THE DAY. THIS
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
AREA FROM THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GEM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE
UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE GEM
BRINGING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALREADY INTO THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
STRONGLY FAVORING THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE DURING THE WEEK...REACHING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 10Z...WITH
CEILINGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES TO MVFR IN
LIGHT RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR-IFR UNTIL AFTER LOW PASSAGE AND WINDS
TURN TO NORTHWEST...ALLOWING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
GRADUALLY RETURN TO MVFR...THEN VFR BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  36  42  30 /  90  40  60  50
INL  49  32  40  27 / 100  50  70  60
BRD  55  36  42  30 /  90  20  60  40
HYR  56  37  44  31 /  90  60  50  50
ASX  56  38  45  32 /  80  60  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP







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