Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 020851
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
351 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE SOME CONCERNS RELATED TO JUST HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TONIGHT...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 TODAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT NEARING ANY RECORD HIGHS.
COOLER TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO LAST
VERY LONG PAST SUNRISE.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.
DRY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS IN THIS REGION WILL GUST TO OVER
25 MPH AT TIMES DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS WITH REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER RISK. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS
IN THE FORM OF CU ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA....MAINLY FROM
LEECH LAKE TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND POINTS WEST BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES VERY WARM...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
INLAND...BUT AS COOL AS THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ADJACENT TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH COOLER TEMPS MOVING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH SHORE DUE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THEY
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT. KEPT POPS GOING OVERNIGHT
WHERE THE BEST EML WILL BE LOCATED...BUT THINK DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS
WILL CAUSE THE LINE OF PRECIP TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SOLUTION...THOUGH SOME OF THE PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
ECMWF DEPICT A MUCH MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINING PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THIS TO BE DUE TO OVERSATURATION AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...AND THUS THINK THIS SOLUTION IS OVERDONE. GEM OFFERS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO LEANED TOWARDS
THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT POPS. TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS
COVER ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AND SW FLOW LEADING TO CONTINUED WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO LOW/MID 50S
MOST LOCATIONS INLAND...WHICH IS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUNDAY...AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP LATE SAT NIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1500 WILL
BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH
A TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REVIVING
OVER A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
COOLER...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING...EXITING TO
THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE HAYWARD
TO PARK FALLS AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER MN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CENTERING
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX TRANSLATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND H85
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER /IN THE 60S MONDAY/...THE DRY AIR MASS
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND LOW RH VALUES
AROUND 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH.

FOCUS TURNS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THAT
EJECTS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE UPPER PLAINS MID-WEEK. THE WAVE WILL
LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE  NORTHLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
/EXCEPT EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/ AND INCREASING MOISTURE. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A TREND TOWARDS A WET PERIOD AS THE WAVES ORGANIZES INTO
A SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT...AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST
ACROSS MINN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION,
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
FOG DEVELOPING AT KDLH AND KHIB. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG
OUT OF THE FORECAST.

RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...THIS WILL
ALLOW SSW WINDS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS. DAY TIME HEATING
ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KHYR.

LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE EXTENT OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO KEPT VCSH AT KINL AND KBRD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  52  72  43 /  10  20  50   0
INL  80  49  72  38 /  20  20  20   0
BRD  77  54  73  43 /  10  30  40   0
HYR  75  54  75  43 /  10   0  80  20
ASX  76  51  75  43 /  10  10  80  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ010-018-025-026.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING/WL





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