Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 302010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 300PM...THERE WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN
DAKOTAS NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTH
FROM THE LOW TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA. MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THERE WAS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER AND SKIES MUCH CLEARER OFF TO THE
WEST...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE DAKOTAS.

THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SE AND E...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFTER SUNSET. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IN MANITOBA WILL MOVE SE AND CROSS NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD/ONTARIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. MELTING WILL HELP LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN ARROWHEAD COULD GET
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE DULUTH AREA
COULD GET A LIGHT DUSTING.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH COOL NW FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER IN THE EASTERN
ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHEN SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. WHILE WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERCOME...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO FOCUS
PRECIP TIMING ON LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED
FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DUE TO WINDS OFF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH DEEP MIXING WELL ABOVE 700MB. WITH
THIS DEEP MIXING EXPECT RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS...WHICH MAY LEAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MAY SEE LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WARMER
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLORADO LOW
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MILD START
TO THE WORK WEEK FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  51  29  58 /  70  10   0  40
INL  35  49  30  63 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  34  58  37  67 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  33  53  30  64 /  60   0   0  50
ASX  33  51  27  61 /  70  20   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





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