Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 250519
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BASED ON LATEST MODELS/RADAR TRENDS...WE LOWERED POPS TONIGHT AND
REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS SUCH..THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER..WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING..ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST
WI. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS..BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND QPF SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS..EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKE PERSISTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY THICK THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS..ALSO LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER..SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE DEEP OVERCAST SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IS MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THAT TROUGH FIZZLES OUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR EAST. OTHERWISE DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BY THE
LAKE...BUT OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A DRY EASTERLY FLOW HAS LED TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AS OF LATE
EVENING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD KBRD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL THEN RISE AND BECOME SCATTERED
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  49  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
INL  30  58  33  63 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  29  56  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  29  48  30  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT
     THIS EVENING FOR LSZ146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE





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