Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 011752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS IS A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS
OPERATING...BUT UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL
MEANS. A PHONE LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE
UNABLE TO DIGITALLY RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. THE ISSUE IS OUT OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANDS...SO HOPEFULLY THE PHONE LINE
OR WHATEVER ISSUE IT IS WILL BE REPAIRED SOON. IN THE
MEANTIME...HAVE BEEN CONTACT WITH THE KHIB AIRPORT MANAGER WHO CAN
PROVIDE US OVER THE PHONE WITH OBSERVATIONS BEING REPORTED BY THE
ASOS BY LISTENING TO ITS SHORT RANGE RADIO. WE WILL BE USING THE
OCCASIONAL REPORTS FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE PROBLEM CAN BE RESOLVED.

THERE WERE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY SSE WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION FOR WIND DIRECTION WAS AT KDLH WHICH HAD EAST WINDS DUE
TO THE WIND COMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR KINL/KHIB/KBRD/KHYR WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA BORDER MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE KDLH AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE EASTERLY WINDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING S TO SSW WINDS ALOFT. ADDED LLWS TO KDLH FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY THE SSW WINDS
OF 40 KNOTS THAT WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING NEAR KDLH AND KHYR. THE KHYR AREA HAS A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN KDLH. THERE COULD BE
VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED LLWS
FOR KHYR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG SSW WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
THE LLWS ISSUES SHOULD LESSEN LATER TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. PREPARE FOR AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS.

THE WEST TO WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  41  60  24 /  30  30  10  10
INL  64  40  53  19 /  20  10  30  20
BRD  71  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  68  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  65  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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