Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 012341
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR THURSDAY...DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR (OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE) ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST AREAS GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
PRE-COLD FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WITH DEEP MIXING AND 925MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS (AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ABOVE 925MB)...AND THEN STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH MIXING NOT AS
DEEP...BUT STILL 30-35 KNOTS TO MIX FROM 850MB. CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TO MIXING POTENTIAL SO A WIND
ADVISORY IS STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BRUSHING OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS AREA BRIEFLY IN ADV CRITERIA BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WIND ADV EVENT FOR A SMALL AREA AND
WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH
THE AREA...ENTERING ERN ND IN THE MORNING AND NW MN IN THE AFTN.
EXPECT TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH MAIN CHANCE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY...THOUGH STRONGEST OF WINDS
SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRI AFTN AND INTO NRN MN FRI EVE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO DVL BASIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY. TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 50S FAR SW TO 30S
NE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TERMS
OF QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS IS GIVING 30 TO 40 POPS FOR MID WEEK
AND SOME POPS IN NEARLY EACH 12 HR PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM.
CONSEQUENTLY I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY LOW POP (14 TO 20 PERCENT)
PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MODELS DO ACTUALLY AGREE ON THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520 TO 540
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 40S SO SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR OR UNDER 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BE AS STRONG IF NOT STRONGER THAN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWITCH WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGER NATURE CONTINUING. ANY CIGS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

TOMORROW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH...ARE EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER ACROSS PARTS OF WILKIN...GRANT...OTTER TAIL...WADENA
AND HUBBARD COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW MAY HAVE
MIN RHS IN THE LOW 30S OR UPR 20S AND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30MPH. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
FIRE WEATHER...JK




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