Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 172010
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW IMPACT WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD. CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A DRY AIRMASS
WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS (MOST AREAS NEAR FREEZING).

ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
COMMENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN
(WHICH IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS) AND MUCH
OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS THICKER CLOUD
COVER SHOULD ALSO BE DELAYED. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
CRITICAL AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW HUMIDITY VALUES...BUT
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 15 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COMPLICATED SYSTEM WITH MANY INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN UPPER WAVE...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH
DETAILS SUCH AS QPF AND EXACT TIMING STILL NOT HIGH.
HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE TWO UPPER WAVES (AND
POSSIBLY MORE EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY) WILL MORE OR LESS
INTERACT. IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR...ANTICIPATE A SURGE NORTHWARD
OF MOISTURE (PWATS OVER AN INCH) AND FORCING (SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE) SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL.
CONSENSUS IS FOR AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN FA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHWEST
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE).

BY MONDAY...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING AREA. UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND UPON
HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HOW QUICKLY THE BELOW
FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WINDY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...STILL FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. LOOKING AT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCH EASTWARD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW. PCPN CHANCES LOOK BEST IN THE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
TIME FRAME AND THEN DRY THEREAFTER. THERMAL COLUMN LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES REMAIN PRETTY CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART SO THE ONLY ISSUE WILL
BE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST MN RIGHT NOW SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST AND THEN NW.
SPEEDS ARE FAIRLY GUSTY AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KFAR. EXPECT THEM TO
STAY ON THE GUSTY SIDE UNTIL THE EVENING THEN BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FUELS REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY DRY STATE AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE BEING APPROACHED OVER ALL AREAS. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. HUMIDITY IS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. OVER THE WARNED AREA...WIND SPEEDS ARE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
THE EVENTUAL HOPE OF SOME MOISTURE FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026-027-054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004>009-
     013>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...WJB




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