Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171716
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE FORECASTED MAX TEMPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FA (JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT). WILL NEED TO RAISE
MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...MIXING OF
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC IS A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA...AND NEEDED TO ADJUST WIND SPEEDS STRONGER ACROSS THIS
AREA. THIS LED TO EXPANDING THE RED FLAG WARNING WESTWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SFC LOW ACROSS THE MANITOBA LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...HOW WARM
WE GET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS A CHALLENGE. RAP/HRRR SUGGEST
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F...ALTHOUGH THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO DRY SO
LIKELY ALSO TOO WARM. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT
WILL REMAIN WITH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NO PRECIP...AND HARDLY
ANY CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIRMASS.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN DUE
TO TIMING OF THE FROPA...MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO PASSAGE
AT PEAK HEATING. DUE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DID ADD SOME
DETAIL TO THE WIND FORECASTS ACROSS THIS AREA (WEST WINDS 15-25MPH
WILL SWITCH NORTH 15-25MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. PATTERN FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST OF CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SAT AND BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY. CONCURRENTLY FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, BECOME INCORPORATED, AND MOVE OUT AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM
AMPLIFICATION.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CURRENTLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RISE SOME WITH APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO
OVER AN INCH SAT NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW AND LOW LEVEL JET.
SHOWALTERS APPROACH ZERO OR SLIGHTLY POSITIVE FOR SAT NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN
SASK/MAN BORDER WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO STAY IN
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MAN. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO INTO WY.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY. SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF LAKE
MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH OF LS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MONDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED TIME FRAME WITH A STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 500MB TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE AREA IN
NW TO CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEPENDING WESTERN EXTENT OF VORT LOBE
ROTATING BACK TO THE AREA MID WEEK. NONETHELESS WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEST CHANCES EAST IN THE MN PINES...FOR A
RAIN...MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AS 850MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE 2C TO 6C DEGREES FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SKIES REMAIN PRETTY CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART SO THE ONLY ISSUE WILL
BE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST MN RIGHT NOW SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST AND THEN NW.
SPEEDS ARE FAIRLY GUSTY AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KFAR. EXPECT THEM TO
STAY ON THE GUSTY SIDE UNTIL THE EVENING THEN BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FUELS REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY DRY STATE AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED OVER ALL AREAS AND ATTAINED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE POSTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. HUMIDITY IS ALREADY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT OVER THE WARNED AREA AS WIND SPEEDS APPROACH OR BRIEFLY
EXCEED 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL
STABILIZE SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND THE EVENTUAL HOPE OF
SOME MOISTURE FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026-027-054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004>009-
     013>016.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...WJB




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