Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT FROM CAVALIER TO JUST WEST OF GRAFTON THEN TO NEAR
COOPERSTOWN TO JAMESTOWN TO WEST OF OAKES. A FEW SHOWERS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW AS EXPECTED. DEW PTS DO RISE
IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE AIRMASS SATURATES. DID
EARLIER POP UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING LATER TONIGHT AND A
DRY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WAS ACROSS THE STATES IN A ZONAL FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA FRI THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY IN THE
700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE OR THE GRADIENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RISE
TO NEAR AN INCH OVERNIGHT OR EAST OF THE FRONT. FRONT/WIND SHIFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN WASH OUT. RETURN FLOW
TO OCCUR FRI.

NEXT TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON
SUN. TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY TO
START THE WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER WED/THU. PWATS WILL
RISE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES...ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
THIS WOULD BE BENEFICIAL RAIN THAT COULD TOTAL AN INCH OR MORE
PERHAPS IN SOME AREAS FOR WED THROUGH THU. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING BY WED/THU WITH MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A FEW LIGTH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG OR JUST AHD OF WIND SHIFT LINE
SO WENT WITH IDEA OF A SOUTHWEST WIND WITH -SHRA ONE HOUR BEFORE
NW WIND SHIFT AND THEN WENT PREDOMINATE WITH -SHRA FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOWERED CLOUDS INTO THE LOWER END VFR RANGE
(5-7K FT) THEN CLEARED IT OUT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
WINDS TURN WEST. WEST WINDS FRIDAY 8 TO 15 KTS ... A BIT STRONGER
IN DVL BASIN....WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
FIRE WEATHER...WJB





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