Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 202000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ENDS
UP TONIGHT AND PCPN CHANCES UNDER THEM. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE
WERE STILL EXTENSIVE CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FA. TEMPS WERE IN THE
LOW 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WEST. LOTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WEB CAMS SHOW BIG
FLAKES IN SPOTS BUT NOTHING OTHER THAN SOME WET ROADS. EARLIER
THIS MORNING THERE WERE SOME WHITE SPOTS IN GRASSY AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AS TEMPS FALL A BIT TONIGHT THAT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS IS AND LET THE
EVENING CREW EXPIRE IT AS NEED BE. TUE LOOKS WINDY AGAIN WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN FA. CURRENTLY HAVE THE
CLOUDS ALSO HANGING TOUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. THEREFORE
HIGHS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN FA. THE GUSTY
WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED...SO ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL IT GETS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR WED AND THU. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BUT MORE IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS BOTH DAYS REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BECOME LESS AGREEABLE AS THE 12Z
ECMWF SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. THE GFS
AND GEM KEEP STEEL NW FLOW/SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY INDICATES MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS AFFECTS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY START BELOW NORMAL...AND TRANSITION TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ELEVATED WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER
GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...TG






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