Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 051733
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WINDS HAVE COME UP A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED...SO BUMPED UP
SPEEDS THRU THE REST OF THE DAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
WAS OVER THE BC COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER SASK. UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER BC COAST WILL MOVE EAST THEN SOUTH AND WILL AFFECT AREA IN
THE LONG TERM. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THU. MORE THERMODYNAMICS THAN
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ESSENTIALLY NO UPPER LEVEL JET. OPEN WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA
WED THEN VEERS TO THE EAST. QUESTION THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET.

IN CONTRAST, SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE ON WED/WED NIGHT. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THU. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEAR ONE AND HALF
INCHES BY WED AFTERNOON AND REMAINS ABOVE AN INCH UNTIL COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON THU. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON WED AND THEN AGAIN THU WITH
COLD FRONT.

WILL KEEP FROST ADVISORY IN THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH COOL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AGAIN FOR THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS TO OUR
WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
BY SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP STARTING TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...TAKING IT OFF INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY WHILE THE
GFS HAS THE CUT OFF LOW SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY. KEPT THE BLENDED SOLUTION WITH HIGH POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER ON MONDAY AS WRAP AROUND TAPERS OFF. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS BUT NEAR AVERAGE ON LOWS WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR CIGS EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 12Z FROM S-N AS BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN.
ONLY MENTIONED -RA AT FAR AS REMAINDER SITES WILL NOT SEE PCPN TIL
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR LATER.  GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SIMMER DOWN TOWARDS SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT NORTHWEST MN
COUNTIES. WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE DROPPED MORE TOO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-053-054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...JR





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