Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 222336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TEMPS WILL BE COLD...PERHAPS INTO THE
TEENS FOR SOME AREAS GIVEN THE VERY DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. FOR NOW WON/T LOWER TEMPS...BUT WILL DECREASE SKY GRIDS TO
ZERO WITH NO CLOUDS AT ALL. WE WILL MONITOR TEMPS AND SEE IF WE
HAVE TO LOWER THEM SOME LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND.

AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE FA THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD DROP
OFF QUICKLY ONCE COOLING STARTS. PRETTY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE
SO WITH SKC AND DIMINISHING WIND HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BLO
PREFERRED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND
MODEST WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
BUT STILL WELL BLO AVERAGES WHICH ARE VCNTY 60.

MID LEVEL SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH MAIN ENERGY IN SOUTHERN
STREAM WHICH ORGANIZES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH E-W
BOUNDARY ACROSS SD. A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH ASSIST FOR SHRA NORTH OF BOUNDARY IN BAROCLINIC
ZONE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAVORED FORCING EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FA.

PCPN SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY CLEAR
FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING MOST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER
HAVING THE FINAL SAY ON HOW MUCH WE RECOVER.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH BLOCKING
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EVOLUTION
OF UPSTREAM SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES HAS BEEN POOR.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS S PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE N PLAINS LATE DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE S PLAINS...WOULD NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK






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