Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 302050
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WAS ACROSS THE STATES IN A ZONAL FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA FRI THROUGH SUN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY IN THE
700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE OR THE GRADIENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RISE
TO NEAR AN INCH OVERNIGHT OR EAST OF THE FRONT. FRONT/WIND SHIFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THEN WASH OUT. RETURN FLOW
TO OCCUR FRI.

NEXT TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON
SUN. TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY TO
START THE WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER WED/THU. PWATS WILL
RISE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES...ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
THIS WOULD BE BENEFICIAL RAIN THAT COULD TOTAL AN INCH OR MORE
PERHAPS IN SOME AREAS FOR WED THROUGH THU. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING BY WED/THU WITH MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT TODAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW IN THE WEST AROUND 00Z FRI...THEN MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH CIGS REMAINING IN THE VFR RANGE. CIGS COULD
APPROACH MVFR LEVELS IF SHOWERS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...SO WE WILL
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE DURING MID AFTERNOON FROM
THE RRV WESTWARD. RH HAS BEEN LOWEST IN THE VALLEY...DIPPING TO
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTH WINDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASE BY EVENING ALTHOUGH
THE WIND SHIFT LINE FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WILL PROGRESS
FROM DVL BASIN LATE AFTN TO VALLEY DURING THE EVENING THEN W EST
CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE RAPID NEAR AND IN
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAXIMUM GRADIENT IN VICINITY OF FRONT
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AIDING IN HUMIDITY RECOVERY. BELIEVE
WE WILL BE FREE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS FRI AFTN OVER DVL BASIN AS
WINDS PROGGED TO REMAIN COMFORTABLY BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...DK
FIRE WEATHER...WJB



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