Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 232336
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
636 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT...AND OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...SO STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. DID INCLUDE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE OUR WEST WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXISTS. WINDS WILL NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT...AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS IT WILL BE A MUCH
MILDER NIGHT. LOWS ARE LOOKING TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS UP INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR AREA...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE FORCING IS BEST. WHILE POPS ARE LEAST
IN OUR WEST...DID INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS
AREA WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING INSTABILITY SITUATED
MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...APPROACHING 70 THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LESS AND THERE WILL POSSIBLY BE A FEW PEEKS
OF SUN...TO LOWER 50S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA WHERE CLOUDS AND BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO SHOW
MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACT FOR THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE
OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOCUSED IN THE VERY EARLY STAGES OF THIS
WEEKEND. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK WILL SWING EASTWARD FOR THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING MID-LVL
RIDGING TO BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND CLOUDY DAY FOR THE LOCAL AREAS...AS
SFC RIDGING TRIES TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL SATURDAY...WITH A WARMUP TO
NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

MOVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK.  A BIT OF PHASING
DIFFERENCES WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHC POPS AROUND MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES.

OTHERWISE BROAD CONSENSUS ON BUILDING MID-LVL HEIGHTS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND
A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR TERM. BUT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS. IN FACT LIGHT RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LEFT THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BECAUSE BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER STABLE. THE LOWEST MVFR STRATUS
COULD BE DOWN IN THE SIOUX CITY AREA...WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CLOUD BASE NEAR 1500 FEET AGL ON FRIDAY...WHEREAS
THE CEILINGS ARE PROJECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER AT KFSD AND KHON. IN
FACT KHON MAY GO LOWER END VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR LIKELY
LINGERING AT KFSD AND KSUX AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ


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