Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 181842
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
142 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE SHORT TERM WILL START OFF QUIET THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AS THE MORNING GOES ON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS GOING TO
START MOVING EAST TODAY...AND WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS FINE-TUNING THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIP. HI-RES NMM AND ARW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TREND IN PUSHING THE PRECIP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOW EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH FAR SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST TO
SEE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN MN BY TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING A
DECENT BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH. BEST LI`S SUGGEST THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...850MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE WONT WARM UP QUITE
AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER IS THE EXPECTATION.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE
WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SUN-TUE...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO A SHARP DIGGING UPR LVL LONGWAVE TROF
FROM S-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ABSORBING A CUTOFF LOW
FROM THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT
NEWD FROM NE/SD ACRS MN INTO THE WRN GRT LKS. PLENTY OF GOMEX
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH POIGNANT PVA LOOKS TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY...GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. HOWEVER...WHILE
THE SFC SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE E SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE UPR
LVL TROF WILL DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT THAT WILL SHIFT INTO
THE WRN GRT LKS MON EVE WHILE THE TROF OVERALL EXPANDS GREATLY
OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GRT LKS REGIONS. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU TUE AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROF
AXES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPR TROF...WHILE THE
1000-500MB MOISTURE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DEEP...SO THERE WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOR THE REGION AT TIMES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW WILL KEEP CAA GOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

WED-FRI...A TRANQUIL BUT COOL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WED THRU THU AS
SFC HIGH PRES MOVES THRU THE REGION WHILE UPR LVL FLOW IS
PREDOMINANTLY NWLY. THIS WILL KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACRS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN A BIT FOR FRI AS LARGE W
COAST TROF LOSES ITS ANCHOR OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES...PICKING UP A SFC LOW PRES CENTER FROM CO/KS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY SHIFT JUST FAR ENOUGH N ON FRI TO POTENTIALLY
SPREAD SOME SHWRS INTO FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...BUT
THE AREA BY AND LARGE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLE IFR AS STORM
SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES SO SHOW SLOWER
ONSET OF PRECIP...SO HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


KMSP...
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL AROUND 05Z.
WINDS WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID MORNING ON
SUNDAY...BUT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20G35KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB



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