Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMPX 200602
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
102 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THIS EVENING EAST OF I-35 AS A
POTENT WAVE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DEFORMATION BAND IS ALREADY BECOMING WELL DEFINED FROM NEAR RED
WING SOUTHWEST INTO IOWA. THERE ARE EMBEDDED ECHOS ABOVE 40 DBZ
AND THINK THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THE MORE
INTENSE BANDING/CELLS THROUGH THE EVENING. FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING AND A BAND OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL SET UP AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE WAVE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO HEAD EAST AND THE BAND
WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED.

UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE OVERHEAD MONDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE SLEET OR
SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS...BUT
MOST SHOULD NOT BE OF MUCH SIGNIFICANCE.

THE OTHER STORY MONDAY WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. DEEP MIXING
TO 700 MB SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING SOME 30-35 KT GUSTS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM MID MORNING ONWARD...BUT SHOULD EASE A BIT BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE MAIN THEME FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE TWO DISTINCT WAVES VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
ACROSS NODAK AND MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
PHASE WITH EACH OTHER OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WITH THE RESULTANT CLOSED H5 LOW SLOWLY WORKING FROM WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY TO NEW ENGLAND/QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND...THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW FAR WEST THIS
UPPER LOW WILL STRETCH...WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT CLEAR BACK INTO
NE MN...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BUILD A RIDGE IN THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A WRN TROUGH TRYING TO MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
WELL. AT EITHER RATE...WE WILL BE SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEK ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WITHIN ITS CONVERGENCE
REGION...WHICH MEANS LOTS OF DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS HEADING
OUR WAY. THE NE HALF OF THE CWA WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY TO SEE MORE SCT-
NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...BUT AFTER THAT...DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER AND IT LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

BEING ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP US WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS WE GET BACK INTO
STRONG NW FLOW. DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA...WHERE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE
ECMWF/GFS...SHOW THE COLD POCKET AT H85 WITH TEMPS BELOW 0C
REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH THE
ECMWF SHOWS UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND...IT DOES NOT
WARM THE LOW LEVELS MUCH OVER WHAT THE GFS HAS...SO IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD WE WILL NOT SEE HIGHS TOPPING 60 AGAIN UNTIL NEXT WORK
WEEK. INCIDENTALLY...TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY IN WHICH THE AVERAGE
HIGH FOR MSP IS 60 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

POTENT CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE REGION EARLIER ON SUNDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR AND LOW VFR CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. A SWATH OF PERSISTENT
-RA REMAINS OVER FAR WRN WI...MAINLY AFFECTING KRNH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AND NIP KEAU BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTER THE
PRECIP CLEARS OUT...STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AS AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE SWOOPS IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING CDFNT...BUT
NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONDS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVE TO VFR BUT MID-UPR LVL CIGS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN. STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THIS ENTIRE TAF...
INCLUDING WINDS HITTING AND EXCEEDING THE 20G30KT MARK FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.

KMSP...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 300-320 RANGE ALL DAY WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1700FT. ANY PRECIP RECEIVED AT
KMSP IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP VSBY BELOW 6SM ALTHOUGH STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALL DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW AT 20G30KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF A DEEP AREA OVER LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
MICHIGAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS AREA EXPECTED FROM WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ON MONDAY WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WITH THE
SPEED OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS ONLY BACKING OFF ABOUT 5 MPH FOR
TUESDAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS WILL
HELP KEEP HUMIDITIES UP IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...BUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE HUMIDITIES FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
PERCENT. IF WE END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...WE COULD EASILY SEE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER MN RIVER
VALLEY DIP BELOW 25 PERCENT...SO TUESDAY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR YET
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...MPG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.