Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251615
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1215 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE
COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG/OFF THE DE/MD
COAST...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO. IN
GENERAL...WX IS PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED...DREARY COOL DAY WITH
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE REGION THUS FAR. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE GENLY
BEEN LESS THAN 0.05" THROUGH NOON. NORTHERN/NE EDGE OF PRECIP
SHIELD RUNNING INTO DRIER AIR (DEW PTS IN UPPER 20S) SO AREAS FROM
THE NRN NECK TO ERN SHORE HAVE GENLY NOT RECEIVED RAIN YET.
TEMPERATURES AVG FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S ACRS MOST OF
THE CWA...LOCALLY INTO THE UPPER 50S IN NE NC SOUTH OF THE MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTN FORECAST...SLOWED THE
ARRIVAL OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS UNTIL AFTER 19Z FOR NE NC...AND
SPED IT UP A BIT FOR PORTIONS OF ERN VA. WILL MAINTAIN POPS
60-80% OVER ALL AREAS OTHER THAN MD ERN SHORE AFTER 19Z. THROUGH
22Z...TOTAL QPF AVGG ONLY 0.10 TO 0.20"...WITH LESS ACRS THE MD
ERN SHORE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN MOST AREAS FROM
CURRENT VALUES...RISING SLIGHTLY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH MID
AFTN...FALLING A FEW DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC AS THE
RAIN ARRIVES LATER. HIGHS AROUND 60 F NE NC...TO THE LOWER-MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LO LVL WEDGE TO RMN IN PLACE OVR THE FA AS ONSHORE WNDS...CLDS AND
PDS OF RA CONTG INTO SUN AFTN. SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING FM
THE OH/TN VLYS TNGT TO OFF THE NC CST LT SUN. WILL CARRY POPS
60-80% OVR MOST OF THE FA. AVG ADDITIONAL QPF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH.
POPS TO BEGIN LWRG SUN AFTN FM NNW TO SE AS WNDS SHIFT TO N AS LO
PRES DEPARTS CST. LO TEMPS FM THE L40S N TO U40S SE. HI TEMPS SUN
IN THE M/U50S.

RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC SUN EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD SUN NGT OVR
THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO
SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE
MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E
LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L/M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTS NE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
TO THE NRN PLAINS LATER TUE/WED...AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN/SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY
/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMAINING COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S...PERHAPS ONLY THE UPPER 50S AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE 40S.

EXPECT INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT LATER WED INTO THU...BRINGING
OVERRUNNING AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTING LATER WED AND LASTING
INTO THU. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW BY THU...ALTHOUGH THE
12Z ECMWF IS STRONGER/CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW AND WOULD
INDICATE A SOAKING RAIN FOR SE VA AND NE NC. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WOULD ONLY INDICATE MINIMAL
PCPN CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF
THE MODELS AND HAVE POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE FROM LATER WED THROUGH
THU ALTHOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SFC LOW. DRY WX IS INDICATED FOR NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON
THURS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS MORNG...AS HI PRES WEAKENS
OVR THE AREA. BUT...THERE WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING HI AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WSW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTN INTO TNGT...AS LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W...WHILE ANOTHER
LO MOVES TO THE NC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING...THEN CONTINUING TNGT INTO SUN AFTN...AS LO PRES
TRACKS ACRS NC AND OFF THE CST.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUN EVENG OR
EARLY MON WHICH CONTINUE THRU TUE. THE CHC FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATE
WED OR WED NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
HI PRES WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE OFF THE CST THIS MORNG. LO PRES WILL
MOVE FM THE MIDWEST EWRD ACRS THE MID ATLC AND OFF THE CST TODAY
THRU SUN. SE OR S WINDS ARND 10 KT LATER TODAY...WILL SHIFT TO THE
NE 10 TO 15 KT LATER TNGT. EXPECT NE OR N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT SUN
INTO SUN EVENG...WITH POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS DIMINISH
BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN NGT...BEFORE POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN
ON MON...WITH LO PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. WAVES BLD BACK TO
3-4 FT ON THE BAY ON SUN...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON THE
OCEAN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG


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