Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 182311
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL NOSE DOWN FROM
EASTERN CANADA.

THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND IN ITS WAKE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF THE SUN. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR THE IMPACTS OF
THIS WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING
OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN
ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN
BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A
GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH
OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS
UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN
THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE
WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE
THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG
RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SUSQ AND POINTS EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NEPA TAF SITES. GUSTS TO THE SW OF A KBFD TO KUNV
AND KMDT LINE WILL BE GENERALLY AOB 15KTS BETWEEN 19-23Z.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER NORTH WIND /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/
WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF PENN
BETWEEN 20-23Z SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
QUICKLY SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO
SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED IN RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT..

TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE
PENN AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPS
COOL BUT DEWPOINTS STAY NEARLY THE SAME.

DRY FINE FUELS AND THE GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...AND WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION AT
00Z SUNDAY.

WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY...WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...



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