Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270923
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AS ONE OF THESE
DISTURBANCES CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF A LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO
LIBERAL LINE BASED ON WHERE THE 700MB TO 500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
BE LOCATED ALONG WITH THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. PRIOR TO THIS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE APPEARS TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN WHERE THE BETTER DOWNGLIDE WILL BE
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY EARLY
TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...GIVEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN BEING
POSSIBLE BY LATE DAY NORTH OF DODGE CITY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY.
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A IMPROVING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FAVORING THE
COOLER 2M NAM TEMPS.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. EVENING
CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY. HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE CURRENT CLEARING
TREND THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

SUNNY CONDITIONS AND MARGINALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE THE
CHARACTER OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS WESTERN KANSAS BECOMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING MID
LEVEL LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE,
HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH IT APPEARS WELL
TO THE NORTH OVER NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS LATE TUESDAY.

THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE POLAR JET SEGMENT
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS IN THE GFS TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD,
INTERSECTING ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ECMWF, HOWEVER FAR MORE DRY SOLUTION, DEPICTS A SIMILAR MODEL
FEATURE EVOLUTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FEATURES A
WARMING TREND TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS RIDGING BECOMES THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, HRRR AND RAP ALL APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH IFR CEILINGS AT GCK GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT DDC WILL ALSO BE
IMPROVING INTO THE 2000 TO 3000FT AGL RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND DRIER AIR DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOG POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ON THE DECREASE BUT PATCHY OF FOG MAY
STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AROUND DAYBREAK TO 2-4 MILES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IN THE DDC AND GCK AREAS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER 12Z MONDAY THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
DDC AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY.
CEILINGS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY. DDC AND GCK IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  38  66  41 /  80  30  10  10
GCK  56  35  66  39 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  51  37  63  39 /  90  20   0   0
LBL  49  37  64  40 / 100  40  10   0
HYS  61  38  67  41 /  10   0  10  10
P28  55  42  66  42 / 100  50  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT


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