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000 FXUS63 KDLH 250015 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 615 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS && .AVIATION...UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD...FROM VFR IN THE FAR SW WHERE A DISTINCT CLEARING LINE IS EDGING TWRD BRD TO IFR OR BLO IN THE E AND N WHERE LGT WINDS AND HIGH RH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR FG FORMATION. CONDITIONS SHUD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON WED AS A LOW PRESS SYSTEM OVR IA ATTM MOVES TWRD NRN LWR MI. THIS WILL BRING PDS OF RA AND STRONGER NW WINDS WHICH WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE VSBY AND BRING CIGS UP TO MVFR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/ DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS PRECIP TYPE AND DURATION WITH SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM CONCERN IS NEXT SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRD TO THE IRON RANGE. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS IN ARRROWHEAD AND IRON RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN. MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR MKC TO NEAR CHI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THU. PRECIP WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA WED MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SO THE PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS WEDESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS SINCE THE GROUND IS WARM AND TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. AREAS NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST INTO WI WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME MIXTURE IN THE MORNING. THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF IN WESTERN COUNTIES THU AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE RAIN/SNOW WILL END ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT AROUND NORTHERN IRON COUNTY WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE (+8C) ON THU. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW. EXTENDED...FRIDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY. A DRY AND QUIET PERIOD SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHLAND AFTER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS DOESN`T STAY LONG WITH FAST FLOW AS TROF DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST AND FORMS SFC LOW. THE GFS AND EXMWF GOVE TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF CUTTING OFF IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN AND THE NRN STREAM ALSO CLOSING OFF WHILE GFS KEEP TROF OPE AND PROGRESSIVE. AT THIS POINT THINK GFS IS MO RE REALISTIC WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. IN EITHER CASE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE/COLD SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP BROADBRUSH LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND TRY TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING LATE IN THE WEEK. AS OF NOW ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SIGNAL A TREND TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS. AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE FCST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL. CIGS COULD BECOME SCATTERED LATE TNT IN THE FAR WEST...BRD-INL AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...COULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND AS A RESULT...FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP OR BECOME MORE DENSE DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE AREAS. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 37 38 25 34 / 50 60 50 10 INL 34 34 20 32 / 40 60 20 20 BRD 33 36 25 34 / 40 60 30 10 HYR 39 40 29 35 / 60 60 70 40 ASX 40 41 33 37 / 50 60 60 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ 04/BERDES/BERDES
