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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 052115
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
315 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LESS MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN
THIS EVENING WILL MEAN VERY SLIM CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN OR STORMS
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY A PASSING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK BY
TO OUR NORTH AND GIVE THE GILA REGION A CHANCE FOR STORMS WHILE
THE REST OF US SEE STRONGER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONT. DRY AGAIN FROM THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING AND WINDS SLACKENING. TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK MOISTURE LOOKS TO WORK BACK IN FROM THE EAST TO GIVE AREAS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE STORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR CIRCULATION WITH
TODAY`S PASSING UPPER LOW TO BE LIFTING NE AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THIS IS MINIMIZING THE DYNAMICS AND BEGINNING TO PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. AS EXPECTED WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWFA THE DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN AND
DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S. DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
DRYING NEAR SURFACE LEAVES ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MID- LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS LAYER IS PRODUCING A HEALTHY CU FIELD...BUT IS SO
SHALLOW IT IS STRUGGLING TO GET STORMS DEVELOPED. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW WEAK AND SHORT- LIVED STORMS NORTH AND FAR EAST...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT RISK OF STORMS IN THE MOUNTAIN
ZONES AND NORTH FOR THIS EVENING...BUT NO SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

CONTINUED DRYING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WED-FRI...AS THE
REGION SITS UNDER A DEEP WESTERLY/SWERLY FLOW REGIME ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF A DIGGING WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS KEEPS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AT BAY WELL TO OUR EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS STREAM DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION. AFTERNOONS SHOULD BE TYPICAL SPRING BREEZY WITH A
MODERATELY TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT AND MINOR TO MODERATE LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING TO OUR EAST. THIS MEANS BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY
AFTERNOONS THANKS TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING.

SATURDAY PROVIDES OUR NEXT DAY WITH STORM POTENTIAL AND THAT
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO ONLY THE GILA REGION. THE WEST COAST
LOW WILL PASS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND ALLOW PCPN TO PASS OVER
THE GILA. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
THE RESULT WILL BE A WINDY AFTERNOON AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT.

THE SYSTEM PASSES RAPIDLY LATE SATURDAY WITH DRY AIR BACK OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION ON QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE COOL
AGAIN SUNDAY BUT BEGIN A WARMING TREND. MONDAY SHORTWAVE RIDGING
RETURNS TO CUT THE WINDS...KEEP US DRY...AND BRING MORE HEAT.

FOR TUESDAY WE LOOK TO THE WEST WHERE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
CREEPING WEST ON SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE MODELS HAVE
VACILLATED ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE INTRUSION...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND TOWARD GETTING THE MOISTURE TO THE RIO
GRANDE. THIS MEANS RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE EAST ZONES
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 06/00Z-07/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THRU PRD. WINDS 260/270-20/25G30KT
THRU 04Z THEN 260/270-10/15KTS. EXPECT FEW-SCT060-080 ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
REGION TO INCLUDE KTCS.

77-PAZOS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT A BROAD AREA OF DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP THE REGION. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR
THE LOWLANDS WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS MIN RH VALUES WILL STAY IN THE
THE 30 PERCENT PLUS RANGE WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WETTING SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TOMORROW THROUGH
FRIDAY MIN RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS ALL FIRE WEATHER
ZONES AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE
RESULTING IN WHAT COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALL AREAS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GILA REGION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...TUE...A CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIP RETURNS TO THE
AREA MAINLY OVER THE SACS AND FAR EASTERN AREAS.

77-PAZOS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 57  84  57  83  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  84  54  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              50  82  50  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              53  84  55  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              39  62  41  62  40 /  20   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  82  52  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             45  73  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  48  84  49  81  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  82  48  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  82  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               51  83  51  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  86  54  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              58  80  56  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  53  84  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            55  83  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  83  57  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           48  83  49  81  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   49  83  51  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                54  83  53  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  83  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 46  71  46  70  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               43  70  44  69  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                45  70  44  68  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 41  73  43  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  81  49  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  83  49  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  72  44  71  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  45  74  46  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  80  45  78  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              40  79  39  76  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  79  48  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  49  83  48  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 49  83  47  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  82  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  79  47  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/77





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