Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012035
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
235 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND. A COOL FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES. BY
SUNDAY...THIS COOLER AIR WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA WITH
WARM...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SPRING HAS ARRIVED WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BEING
COMMONPLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WEST COAST WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
WRN OK PANHANDLE AND EXPECT TO SEE 20-30G40MPH WINDS FOR THU.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY...WHICH IS NOT AS CONDUSIVE TO WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE
LOWLANDS AND UPPER 60S AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL
BE DRYING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY...SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEG W TO 10 DEG E. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRI NIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE E. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THIS PUSH WHICH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. ALL MODELS KEEPING
IT FAIRLY STABLE WITH JUST SMALL AREAS SEEING LI`S BELOW 0C. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE...BUT MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR AS THE DIVIDE. WSW FLOW WILL RETURN QUICKLY BY SUN WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPEPR 70S TO LOWER 80S GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALMOST
DAILY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH P6SM FEW080-100 SCT250 EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THRU 02Z...THEN FEW-SCT250.  WINDS 240-270/10-15G25KTS THROUGH
03Z..THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 16Z THU.  WINDS
250-280/15-25G35KTS FM 16Z THROUGH END OF PERIOD.  LGT OCNL MDT
TURBC 020-140 THROUGH 15Z...THEN LGT-MDT TURBC SFC-140. AWW MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY FOR ELP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE REGION AS A RESULT...WHILE A LEE SIDE LOW WILL MAINTAIN ITS
INTEGRITY ACROSS EASTERN NM AND NORTHERN TX. THE COMBINATION OF MIX
DOWN FROM THE WINDS ALOFT AND WINDS GENERATED FROM THE LEE SIDE
LOW...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING  AND
THURSDAY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOWLAND AND MOUNTAIN ZONES. WINDS CALM DOWN
FRIDAY...AFTER A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH...WHILE LEAVING HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.  ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY ALSO RETURN SATURDAY FOR AREA MOUNTAINS...AS MEAGER
AMOUNTS OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE TRY TO MAKE A COMEBACK TO OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD RAISE MIN RH 8-12 DEGREES...WITH SOUTHEAST BREEZES
EXPECTED ALL AREAS.  EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 61  85  59  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  83  52  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              49  83  47  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              48  82  47  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              41  58  38  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  80  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             47  75  40  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  82  43  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               46  81  42  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  85  57  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               50  87  49  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            53  86  53  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              53  79  51  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  54  86  54  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            50  84  50  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          52  84  51  74  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  83  40  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   47  84  47  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  83  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  83  50  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 46  69  40  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               41  71  36  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                44  68  39  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 44  73  36  66  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               44  80  42  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               46  82  40  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            39  71  35  68  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  45  76  40  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  76  38  76  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  75  30  74  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 45  77  41  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  47  82  44  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 45  83  43  77  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          46  82  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              43  78  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

26/22




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